Side-by-side · Software Engineer
Phoenix vs San Francisco
Move Value
−$27k
real, after tax + COL · per year
Career Velocity
10/10
Phoenix: 6/10 → leap
10-Year Outlook
−$251k
± $143k confidence band
| Phoenix | San Francisco | |
|---|---|---|
| P50 salary, role | $132k | $187k |
| State + local income tax | 2.2% | 7.2% |
| After-tax income | $98k | $126k |
| Cost of living (US = 100) | 107 | 195 |
| Median 1BR rent | $1741/mo | $3206/mo |
| Real purchasing power | $91k | $64k |
| Career Velocity (this role) | 6/10 | 10/10 |
| Career Velocity v1 (0–100) | 56 · Moderate | 81 · High |
| Walkability (0–10) | 4 | 9 |
| Outdoors (0–10) | 8 | 9 |
Who should make this move
Choose San Francisco if…
- ·Your field's Career Velocity is at least as good in SF (10/10).
- ·Highest tech salaries in the country — if you can stomach the cost.
Stay in Phoenix if…
- ·You'd lose $27k of real income annually.
- ·Your 10-year picture is $251k better if you stay.
- ·You're optimizing for what Phoenix uniquely offers: low cost, low taxes, fast-growing logistics and semiconductor base.
A note on the numbers: Salaries are role-P50 from BLS-style bands. Tax is statutory state + local at ~$110k single. The 10-year outlook uses a 3-year promotion cadence with a small velocity adjustment, 2.5% COL inflation, and discounts to today's dollars. Full assumptions on the methodology page.